Showing posts with label winter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label winter. Show all posts

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Check on the Teleconnections

NAO
   The NAO remains negative. The forecast shows it staying negative, at least though the beginning of November. A negative NAO usually locks cold air in place along the East Coast, but other factors, like the MJO can affect this. Anyways, snow/cold lovers want a negative NAO, for a good winter. This winter looks like a relief compared to last year, for those of you who are snow/cold lovers, along the East Coast. This is because the NAO has been primarily through summer, and is likely to continue it's negative trend, through winter.
AO
   The AO is also negative. The difference between the NAO, is that the AO has been primarily positive, since summer. The recent dip negative in the beginning of October, might be starting a new trend. The AO is also expected to stay negative though the beginning of November, as the NAO is. What's been weird about the AO is that the past few months it hasn't had a strong correlation with the NAO, while it usually does. The past couple of weeks, however, you can see that the AO has been correlating better with the NAO. The question is if this will last into the winter, for if the AO will continue it's positive trend again. If the AO does happen to continue this recent negative trend, expect Arctic air to plunge south, more often, this winter. If the AO goes positive again for the winter, this would mean more of the time the frigid air will bottle up, well to our north.


PNA
   After a quick peak positive, several days ago, the PNA is once again negative. The PNA has been primarily negative, since summer. By early November, there's a chance of the PNA coming positive again. For an even better winter for snow/cold lovers on the East Coast, you want a positive PNA. This would mean ridging in the West. At this point, I don't believe it is very likely that the PNA will be primarily positive, this winter. 



Saturday, August 18, 2012

What Do We Need for a Perfect Winter?

  • Warm spike from the PDO
  • Weak El Nino
  • Warmest waters off the South American coast
  • +PNA, -NAO, -AO
  • Good storm tracks- storms that rides up the East Coast would be the best case scenario
  • +AMO~ blocking is more likely with a +AMO, rather than a -AMO

August Update: Winter Thoughts

Eastern US
  • Below average temperatures
  • Above average snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast
  • Maine will possibly have above average temperatures, because of Greenland Blocking
Midwest US
  • Below average temperatures
  • Big lake-effect snows, because of very warm lakes
Western US
  • Slightly above average temperatures
  • Drier then normal, for some

Friday, July 20, 2012

Look At This Winter- U.S.- JAMSTEC Model

Temperatures: Below normal temperatures for much for United States, besides a small area of slightly above average temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Northwest. As we get closer to the winter, I expect the model to show a larger area of above average temperatures for the West, but I'm sticking with below average temperature for the East Coast, as the factors are hinting on. (El Nino Strength, PDO phase, where the El Nino is centered)

Precipitation: Above average precipitation for much of the East Coast, especially the Southeast. The combination of below average temperatures and above average precipitation in this area could mean it could be a pretty snowy winter ahead. One analogue year I am using is 09-10. I'm not saying yet that it will be quite as cold and snowy, but this winter could be similar. One thing I can say for sure: get your shovels ready if you live in the Northeast and Southeast, because this definitely not a repeat of last year. Above average precipitation would also help out drought in this area. Slightly below average precipitation for much of the West, Midwest, and even portions of the Northeast.   

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Looking at This Winter- and Beyond!

Winter 2012-2013
Most Likely Scenario
  • Below average temperatures and above average snowfall for much for the East Coast
  • Above average temperatures in the West
Spring 2013
Most Likely Scenario
  • Above average tornado season- much worse than this year
  • Occasional tornado outbreaks in the Southeast and possibly the Northeast
  • Tornado Alley gets hit hard
Hurricane Season 2013
Most Likely Scenario
  • More active than this year
  • Above average season
  • More tropical waves coming off of Africa
  • U.S. landfalls are less likely than this year, but still possible

*NOTE: These are long- range forecasts, and some ideas are likely to change.