Sources
Menorah picture: http://www.buckshappening.com/happy-chanukah-bucks-county
Partly cloudy weather symbol: http://www.ukweathernow.com/Weather-forecast-2012/Sheffield
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
My Stance on Climate Change
I believe there is no so called "consensus" on Climate Change. The debate will continue for years to come, on Climate Change. What I question is the amount of warming is effected by humans, and the amount of warming effected by natural factors (the Sun, oceans being the biggest factors). In my opinion, there is no question that humans do have an effect on climate, but the question is if this effect is minuscule, or substantial. My opinion has changed from months ago, when I believed with no question that Climate Change was 100% natural, and the idea of AGW was a hoax. We do not have enough data to support either opinion, and jump the gun. Tree ring data is just unreliable, to put that out there.
When it comes to burning fossil fuels, I do believe we should cut down, but stopping all burning of fossil fuels would be a bad idea. Many people would lose their job in this case, causing the already bad unemployment rate to rise even more. Some happen to forget that CO2 is needed for life. Then again, too much CO2 wouldn't be the greatest idea. Just a bit more CO2 and plant-life will thrive. Crop season will last longer. Cold weather is worse than warm weather, if you think about it. Harsh cold could mean limited food, from crops. People's bills would be even higher, because of the use of heat, more often.
I don't agree with extremists on either sides. Extremist activists bring up the idea of the Arctic being the only habitable place, in the future. They also show cities underwater, and call our current weather "dirty weather". Extremist skeptics go ahead and say we are heading into an Ice Age, relatively soon. Some get to the point to say that Earth's temperature will drop several degrees, over the next couple of decades. That's obviously over-hyped. Cooling still is not out of the question, with the current -PDO, and lessening Sun activity. Even the +AMO, which is to blame for some of the Arctic melting, is going negative, in 10 or so years. Anyways, I do expect a bit of cooling over the next few decades, but nothing too big.
When it comes to burning fossil fuels, I do believe we should cut down, but stopping all burning of fossil fuels would be a bad idea. Many people would lose their job in this case, causing the already bad unemployment rate to rise even more. Some happen to forget that CO2 is needed for life. Then again, too much CO2 wouldn't be the greatest idea. Just a bit more CO2 and plant-life will thrive. Crop season will last longer. Cold weather is worse than warm weather, if you think about it. Harsh cold could mean limited food, from crops. People's bills would be even higher, because of the use of heat, more often.
I don't agree with extremists on either sides. Extremist activists bring up the idea of the Arctic being the only habitable place, in the future. They also show cities underwater, and call our current weather "dirty weather". Extremist skeptics go ahead and say we are heading into an Ice Age, relatively soon. Some get to the point to say that Earth's temperature will drop several degrees, over the next couple of decades. That's obviously over-hyped. Cooling still is not out of the question, with the current -PDO, and lessening Sun activity. Even the +AMO, which is to blame for some of the Arctic melting, is going negative, in 10 or so years. Anyways, I do expect a bit of cooling over the next few decades, but nothing too big.
Friday, November 2, 2012
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Check on the Teleconnections
NAO
The NAO remains negative. The forecast shows it staying negative, at least though the beginning of November. A negative NAO usually locks cold air in place along the East Coast, but other factors, like the MJO can affect this. Anyways, snow/cold lovers want a negative NAO, for a good winter. This winter looks like a relief compared to last year, for those of you who are snow/cold lovers, along the East Coast. This is because the NAO has been primarily through summer, and is likely to continue it's negative trend, through winter.
AO
The AO is also negative. The difference between the NAO, is that the AO has been primarily positive, since summer. The recent dip negative in the beginning of October, might be starting a new trend. The AO is also expected to stay negative though the beginning of November, as the NAO is. What's been weird about the AO is that the past few months it hasn't had a strong correlation with the NAO, while it usually does. The past couple of weeks, however, you can see that the AO has been correlating better with the NAO. The question is if this will last into the winter, for if the AO will continue it's positive trend again. If the AO does happen to continue this recent negative trend, expect Arctic air to plunge south, more often, this winter. If the AO goes positive again for the winter, this would mean more of the time the frigid air will bottle up, well to our north.
PNA
After a quick peak positive, several days ago, the PNA is once again negative. The PNA has been primarily negative, since summer. By early November, there's a chance of the PNA coming positive again. For an even better winter for snow/cold lovers on the East Coast, you want a positive PNA. This would mean ridging in the West. At this point, I don't believe it is very likely that the PNA will be primarily positive, this winter.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Hurricane Season So Far VS Prediction
So far there have been 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The forecast below was made on December 30, 2011. Everything but the major hurricanes verifies so far, which I forecasted a bit high.
2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: First Edition
I know it's pretty early to be predicting the hurricane season but here is my prediction. I think this hurricane season will be slightly less active then last year, but still an above average year.
2012 Hurricane Season
Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
15-18 8-11 3-5
A
V
E
R 11 6 2
A
G
E
2011's Hurricane Season
- Tropical Storms- 19
- Hurricanes- 12
- Major Hurricanes- 5
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Polar Ice Update
Antarctic Ice Extent
After reaching a all-time record high a couple of weeks ago, Antarctic sea ice extent remains well above average. Melting season really starts to get going late October/early November, so it should be interesting to watch what level are, by then.
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| http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png |
Arctic Ice Extent
While Arctic ice extent remains very much below the average, it has finally surpassed 2007's ice extent, and is rapidly rising. At this rate, Arctic ice extent should reach 2011 levels, within the next several weeks.
 |
| http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png |
Friday, October 12, 2012
Twitter User Caught With Fake Tornado Picture
Twitter user Sunday, September 23, 2012
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Watching Invest 94L
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| GFS ensemble members via wunderground.com |
 |
 Computer models via wunderground.com |
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| Model intensity forecast via wunderground.com Chance of development via NHC |
OPINION: Climate Change is Natural
Many believe Climate Change is man-made. I laugh to myself to believe people think CO2 (a trace gas) would have such a large effect on the climate. If you look at the facts, CO2 makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere. Humans contribute a very tiny 3%-5% of that.
Al Gore's chart showed CO2 increasing, and then temperatures increasing, and vice versa. Is this true? No. It's actually the opposite way around. CO2 lagged behind temperatures, in other words data actually showed temperatures warm first, and then CO2 increases in the atmosphere. The hotter the temperature, the less CO2 in the air. The colder the temperature, the less CO2 in the atmosphere.
Next, we go to the hockey graph by Mr. Mann. Tree rings showed that temperatures didn't start warming till the past 100 or so years. This shouldn't be trusted. The Climategate e-mails showed that some scientists could be trying to manipulate data. It doesn't stop there. One guy said he would be willing beat the crap out of a skeptic, if he saw him again. Someone else had a strategy that could keep skeptics from publishing data on newspapers.
Anyways, 2 sets of tree ring data showed no significant warming. One showed no warming trend at all (just some ups and downs throughout time, in a straight line) while the other showed 2000 years of cooling, with the Medieval Warm-Period being warmer that today.
The past 15 years, temperatures have not warmed at all, while CO2 continues to rise. While there is no connection between CO2 and temperatures, ocean and Sun cycles are almost an exact match. As you would expect, when the Sun is more active, you have warmer than normal temperatures, and vise versa. Ocean cycles are a bit more complex. There is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). There are cold phases and warm phases. The AMO is in a warm phase, or warm waters along the East Coast. The PDO is in a cold phase, or cold waters along the West Coast. The warm AMO is the cause of the melting in the Arctic. Data shows as the AMO flipped to the warm phase, the Arctic started a melting trend. This should flip in 5-10 years. When this flip occurs, expect the Arctic to start gaining ice again. The cold PDO also has a big effect on weather. Alaska just had record snowfall this winter. There is still snow on the mountains, which should have melted by now. The Barrow Sea had record ice, earlier this year. The combination of a warm AMO and a cold PDO also means drought is a lot more common in the U.S. This is also why we see more wildfires, like the one earlier this year in Colorado. Anyways, the current drought is not even close to droughts in the 1930's, the 'Dust Bowl'. The warm AMO is good in one way, for snow and cold lovers. Greenland blocking is more likely, which means cold air pretty much locks in place, in the East.
Heat waves are also not even close to the 1930's. The heat wave index shows that U.S. heat waves back then blow away today's heat waves. After a slight increase in the heat wave index in the late 90's, there has been no increase.
What should we expect in the future? We have already seen a couple years of cooling, after the PDO flipped to its cold phase. Expect a continued trend of cooling, until 2030 or so. Little Sun activity/ ocean cycles hint on this. I'm not saying the Earth will become a ice ball or something, but we are likely to have a mini ice age that will last a few decades. Talking ice ball, some people believed in "Global Cooling" in the 1970's. This was another time when the PDO was in its cold phase. the TIME Magazine was warning of the "coming ice age" and even the New York Times was saying it was evident that the planet was cooling. It's funny how these same people are hyping up "Climate Change" now.
Al Gore's chart showed CO2 increasing, and then temperatures increasing, and vice versa. Is this true? No. It's actually the opposite way around. CO2 lagged behind temperatures, in other words data actually showed temperatures warm first, and then CO2 increases in the atmosphere. The hotter the temperature, the less CO2 in the air. The colder the temperature, the less CO2 in the atmosphere.
Next, we go to the hockey graph by Mr. Mann. Tree rings showed that temperatures didn't start warming till the past 100 or so years. This shouldn't be trusted. The Climategate e-mails showed that some scientists could be trying to manipulate data. It doesn't stop there. One guy said he would be willing beat the crap out of a skeptic, if he saw him again. Someone else had a strategy that could keep skeptics from publishing data on newspapers.
Anyways, 2 sets of tree ring data showed no significant warming. One showed no warming trend at all (just some ups and downs throughout time, in a straight line) while the other showed 2000 years of cooling, with the Medieval Warm-Period being warmer that today.
The past 15 years, temperatures have not warmed at all, while CO2 continues to rise. While there is no connection between CO2 and temperatures, ocean and Sun cycles are almost an exact match. As you would expect, when the Sun is more active, you have warmer than normal temperatures, and vise versa. Ocean cycles are a bit more complex. There is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). There are cold phases and warm phases. The AMO is in a warm phase, or warm waters along the East Coast. The PDO is in a cold phase, or cold waters along the West Coast. The warm AMO is the cause of the melting in the Arctic. Data shows as the AMO flipped to the warm phase, the Arctic started a melting trend. This should flip in 5-10 years. When this flip occurs, expect the Arctic to start gaining ice again. The cold PDO also has a big effect on weather. Alaska just had record snowfall this winter. There is still snow on the mountains, which should have melted by now. The Barrow Sea had record ice, earlier this year. The combination of a warm AMO and a cold PDO also means drought is a lot more common in the U.S. This is also why we see more wildfires, like the one earlier this year in Colorado. Anyways, the current drought is not even close to droughts in the 1930's, the 'Dust Bowl'. The warm AMO is good in one way, for snow and cold lovers. Greenland blocking is more likely, which means cold air pretty much locks in place, in the East.
Heat waves are also not even close to the 1930's. The heat wave index shows that U.S. heat waves back then blow away today's heat waves. After a slight increase in the heat wave index in the late 90's, there has been no increase.
What should we expect in the future? We have already seen a couple years of cooling, after the PDO flipped to its cold phase. Expect a continued trend of cooling, until 2030 or so. Little Sun activity/ ocean cycles hint on this. I'm not saying the Earth will become a ice ball or something, but we are likely to have a mini ice age that will last a few decades. Talking ice ball, some people believed in "Global Cooling" in the 1970's. This was another time when the PDO was in its cold phase. the TIME Magazine was warning of the "coming ice age" and even the New York Times was saying it was evident that the planet was cooling. It's funny how these same people are hyping up "Climate Change" now.
Data
Saturday, August 18, 2012
What Do We Need for a Perfect Winter?
- Warm spike from the PDO
- Weak El Nino
- Warmest waters off the South American coast
- +PNA, -NAO, -AO
- Good storm tracks- storms that rides up the East Coast would be the best case scenario
- +AMO~ blocking is more likely with a +AMO, rather than a -AMO
August Update: Winter Thoughts
Eastern US
- Below average temperatures
- Above average snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast
- Maine will possibly have above average temperatures, because of Greenland Blocking
- Below average temperatures
- Big lake-effect snows, because of very warm lakes
- Slightly above average temperatures
- Drier then normal, for some
Thursday, August 16, 2012
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