Friday, July 20, 2012

Look At This Winter- U.S.- JAMSTEC Model

Temperatures: Below normal temperatures for much for United States, besides a small area of slightly above average temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Northwest. As we get closer to the winter, I expect the model to show a larger area of above average temperatures for the West, but I'm sticking with below average temperature for the East Coast, as the factors are hinting on. (El Nino Strength, PDO phase, where the El Nino is centered)

Precipitation: Above average precipitation for much of the East Coast, especially the Southeast. The combination of below average temperatures and above average precipitation in this area could mean it could be a pretty snowy winter ahead. One analogue year I am using is 09-10. I'm not saying yet that it will be quite as cold and snowy, but this winter could be similar. One thing I can say for sure: get your shovels ready if you live in the Northeast and Southeast, because this definitely not a repeat of last year. Above average precipitation would also help out drought in this area. Slightly below average precipitation for much of the West, Midwest, and even portions of the Northeast.