Sunday, October 21, 2012

Tonight's Sunset Collection (Fort Mill,SC)







Check on the Teleconnections

NAO
   The NAO remains negative. The forecast shows it staying negative, at least though the beginning of November. A negative NAO usually locks cold air in place along the East Coast, but other factors, like the MJO can affect this. Anyways, snow/cold lovers want a negative NAO, for a good winter. This winter looks like a relief compared to last year, for those of you who are snow/cold lovers, along the East Coast. This is because the NAO has been primarily through summer, and is likely to continue it's negative trend, through winter.
AO
   The AO is also negative. The difference between the NAO, is that the AO has been primarily positive, since summer. The recent dip negative in the beginning of October, might be starting a new trend. The AO is also expected to stay negative though the beginning of November, as the NAO is. What's been weird about the AO is that the past few months it hasn't had a strong correlation with the NAO, while it usually does. The past couple of weeks, however, you can see that the AO has been correlating better with the NAO. The question is if this will last into the winter, for if the AO will continue it's positive trend again. If the AO does happen to continue this recent negative trend, expect Arctic air to plunge south, more often, this winter. If the AO goes positive again for the winter, this would mean more of the time the frigid air will bottle up, well to our north.


PNA
   After a quick peak positive, several days ago, the PNA is once again negative. The PNA has been primarily negative, since summer. By early November, there's a chance of the PNA coming positive again. For an even better winter for snow/cold lovers on the East Coast, you want a positive PNA. This would mean ridging in the West. At this point, I don't believe it is very likely that the PNA will be primarily positive, this winter. 



Saturday, October 20, 2012

Tonight's Sunset Collection (Fort Mill, SC)




Hurricane Season So Far VS Prediction

So far there have been 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The forecast below was made on December 30, 2011. Everything but the major hurricanes verifies so far, which I forecasted a bit high.                                                  

 

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: First Edition

I know it's pretty early to be predicting the hurricane season but here is my prediction. I think this hurricane season will be slightly less active then last year, but still an above average year.

2012 Hurricane Season
  
Tropical Storms               Hurricanes            Major Hurricanes

         15-18                             8-11                             3-5

A
V
E
R             11                                  6                                  2   
A
G
E



2011's Hurricane Season

  • Tropical Storms- 19
  • Hurricanes- 12 
  • Major Hurricanes- 5

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Polar Ice Update

 
Antarctic Ice Extent
After reaching a all-time record high a couple of weeks ago, Antarctic sea ice extent remains well above average. Melting season really starts to get going late October/early November, so it should be interesting to watch what level are, by then.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

Arctic Ice Extent
 
While Arctic ice extent remains very much below the average, it has finally surpassed 2007's ice extent, and is rapidly rising. At this rate, Arctic ice extent should reach 2011 levels, within the next several weeks. 
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png




Friday, October 12, 2012

Twitter User Caught With Fake Tornado Picture

Night tornadoTwitter user got caught stealing a picture, claiming he took it tonight while storm chasing. The photo was actually taken 6 months ago, as proven by wunderground.com: http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html?mode=singleimage&handle=Andrewbre&number=0 He also was caught stealing possible multiple other photos. This just isn't right. What would you feel like if your photo got stolen, and someone claimed it was theirs? An apology to everyone would be much appreciated, but can we ever trust this guy again? He has gotten caught red-handed, multiple times. The one reason I feel bad for him is because he is a beginner storm-chaser. He probably hasn't had any luck yet, so he decided to post fake photos to get attention.