Saturday, October 22, 2011

Southeast Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Southeast Winter Forecast 2011-2012
The coldest temperatures will be in Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia will have temperatures slighty below average. Florida will have near normal temperatures, and will likely some blasts of cold air from time to time. Also, just like last year, I am expecting there to be periods of warmth between all the cold blasts of air. I think this because just like last year, we have a La Nina pattern.
(Note that by precipitation I mean in the liquid form, so for example, lets say your area gets an average of 5 inches of snow a year and 2 inches of rain, and you get 10 inches of snow the whole season, that would be below normal precipitation((think about the snow to liquid equivalent)) and it would be above normal snowfall) Northern Tennessee will have slightly above average precipitation. Also, the mountains of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee will have slightly above average precipitation. There will also be drier than average conditions in southern Mississippi, Albama, Georgia, and also eastern North Carolina and South Carolina. Northern Florida will also fit in this category, while southern Florida will have the driest conditions out of the whole southeast.
Snowfall will be much above average in the moutains of North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. Much of the southeast will also be in the "above average" category, as you can see in the map above. Southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and also the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina will see slightly above average snowfall. Also, as you can see, Florida in colored in pink because it means if there is any rare snow events (yes, it happens) they will be late in the season. I also have a gut feeling that a lot of areas will get there first snowfall in November, most likely late in the month. I had this same "gut feeling" last year a few months before Christmas, that it would actually snow on Christmas, and it did! I nailed it. I was thinking a pretty heavy snow was going to start on Christmas Eve and end on christmas day, and amazingly I was straight on(I live in SC). I will have a blog more on my "gut feeling" that it was going to snow and also more on possible November snow withen the next couple of weeks.

Southeast 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Video
Also, below is the video that pretty much sums up the 2011-2012 forecast. Anyway, expect my next and final winter forecast to be in early December.


  1. Jared, Jared,Jared, it is Jan. 25th today and where is the snow in SC? Looks like we are going from Fall into Spring.

  2. The NAO and AO have been the big factor. This winter, they have been unpredctable, staying positive. Last year, it was negative (GOOD THING) causing it to be muh colder and snowier. The AO is already negative now, and the NAO is also going negative. Febuary could turn out being pretty intresting.