August Update: Winter Thoughts

Eastern US

• Below average temperatures
• Above average snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast
• Maine will possibly have above average temperatures, because of Greenland Blocking

Midwest US

• Below average temperatures
• Big lake-effect snows, because of very warm lakes

Western US

• Slightly above average temperatures
• Drier then normal, for some

Looking at This Winter- and Beyond!

Winter 2012-2013
Most Likely Scenario

• Below average temperatures and above average snowfall for much for the East Coast
• Above average temperatures in the West

Spring 2013
Most Likely Scenario

• Above average tornado season- much worse than this year
• Occasional tornado outbreaks in the Southeast and possibly the Northeast
• Tornado Alley gets hit hard

Hurricane Season 2013
Most Likely Scenario

• More active than this year
• Above average season
• More tropical waves coming off of Africa
• U.S. landfalls are less likely than this year, but still possible

*NOTE: These are long- range forecasts, and some ideas are likely to change.

Difference Between a NAO Positive and a NAO Negative

Definition of NAO

The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high

~from Wikipedia: read more about NAO at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

What is a Positive NAO?

 
This is when much of the east coast gets warmer than normal temperatures. The west coast gets below normal temperatures. If you didn't notice, this is what has been giving the east coast hardly any winter. Except the rare snowstrom in October, the Northeast hasn't seen any big snow events. Some areas in the Southwest have seen more snow than areas in the Northeast. Weirdly enough, areas like northern Texas have been hammered with snow. You can also say that the west has had a pretty cold winter so far this year. Only 25.7% of the United States is covered in snow right now, while this time last year, while 48.0% of the United States was covered in snow last year, what the negative NAO was persistent.

Current Snow Depth

Snow Depth This Time Last Year

A Positive NAO

What is a Negative NAO?

A negative NAO is when much of the east coast gets below normal temperatures. The west coast usually gets milder than normal temperatures. This pretty much could cancel out the effects of the La Nina pattern (just as it did last year). Last year was a year of records being set. Areas like NYC got feet of snowfall, starting the end of December (from the same snowstorm that gave many areas in the Southeast a very rare white Christmas). Schools in NYC were closed two days, while schools are rarly closed there. The negative NAO would pretty much switch our weather with the west coast.

  

A Negative NAO

Is The NAO Expected to Go Down?

Yes, the NAO is expected to go down, possibily going negative as early as ealry January. This is why I am sticking with my forecast that the Southeast will be cold this year. As you can see, a good 4+ models have the NAO going negative by the 2nd of January. This will switch around our weather, giving the east coast, including the Southeast some persistent cold air. Many areas in the Southeast will there first snow. Many people are already giving up on winter, but you don't have to. What must come up, must go down. It is an uncertainty how long the NAO will stay negative.

   

 

Scenario #1

Scenario #1 is that the NAO stays negative persistently. This might cause a similar winter as last year, giving the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast several chances for snow, since we would be in a cold air just sticking around for a while.

Scenario #2

Scenario #2 is that the NAO goes up and down. This will cause periods of cold air and warm air. This will lower the amount of snowstorms for the east coast, since some of the times the storm will run into warm air, when the NAO goes positive. This will also possibly increase the chances for anything in between rain and snow, like sleet, freezing rain, and wintery mixes. 

Scenario #3

Scenario #3 is that the NAO never goes negative, giving the east coast hardly any winter. I think there is only a low chance of happening, so don't worry. This will cause most of the storms to produce only rain. Most of the time, big cities like New York City, Washington,DC, and even Boston will get all rain, while areas inland could get snow.

Southeast Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Southeast Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Temperature
The coldest temperatures will be in Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia will have temperatures slighty below average. Florida will have near normal temperatures, and will likely some blasts of cold air from time to time. Also, just like last year, I am expecting there to be periods of warmth between all the cold blasts of air. I think this because just like last year, we have a La Nina pattern.

Precipitation
(Note that by precipitation I mean in the liquid form, so for example, lets say your area gets an average of 5 inches of snow a year and 2 inches of rain, and you get 10 inches of snow the whole season, that would be below normal precipitation((think about the snow to liquid equivalent)) and it would be above normal snowfall) Northern Tennessee will have slightly above average precipitation. Also, the mountains of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee will have slightly above average precipitation. There will also be drier than average conditions in southern Mississippi, Albama, Georgia, and also eastern North Carolina and South Carolina. Northern Florida will also fit in this category, while southern Florida will have the driest conditions out of the whole southeast.

 Snowfall
Snowfall will be much above average in the moutains of North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. Much of the southeast will also be in the "above average" category, as you can see in the map above. Southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and also the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina will see slightly above average snowfall. Also, as you can see, Florida in colored in pink because it means if there is any rare snow events (yes, it happens) they will be late in the season. I also have a gut feeling that a lot of areas will get there first snowfall in November, most likely late in the month. I had this same "gut feeling" last year a few months before Christmas, that it would actually snow on Christmas, and it did! I nailed it. I was thinking a pretty heavy snow was going to start on Christmas Eve and end on christmas day, and amazingly I was straight on(I live in SC). I will have a blog more on my "gut feeling" that it was going to snow and also more on possible November snow withen the next couple of weeks.

Southeast 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Video
Also, below is the video that pretty much sums up the 2011-2012 forecast. Anyway, expect my next and final winter forecast to be in early December.

Possible Winter Storm For Southeast In Early March

Have you noticed the past few years it has snowed in the beginning of March? Well, it's a possibility that it could happen again this year. You may think spring is here for good and there will be no cold air, but according to previous winters, we do have that chance of some kind of wintry weather. There could be snow, sleet, ice, or there might be no more wintry weather at all, so stay tuned!

Here is what this(possible) March storm could look
like.