What Do We Need for a Perfect Winter?

• Warm spike from the PDO
• Weak El Nino
• Warmest waters off the South American coast
• +PNA, -NAO, -AO
• Good storm tracks- storms that rides up the East Coast would be the best case scenario
• +AMO~ blocking is more likely with a +AMO, rather than a -AMO

August Update: Winter Thoughts

Eastern US

• Below average temperatures
• Above average snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast
• Maine will possibly have above average temperatures, because of Greenland Blocking

Midwest US

• Below average temperatures
• Big lake-effect snows, because of very warm lakes

Western US

• Slightly above average temperatures
• Drier then normal, for some

Look At This Winter- U.S.- JAMSTEC Model

Temperatures: Below normal temperatures for much for United States, besides a small area of slightly above average temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Northwest. As we get closer to the winter, I expect the model to show a larger area of above average temperatures for the West, but I'm sticking with below average temperature for the East Coast, as the factors are hinting on. (El Nino Strength, PDO phase, where the El Nino is centered)

Precipitation: Above average precipitation for much of the East Coast, especially the Southeast. The combination of below average temperatures and above average precipitation in this area could mean it could be a pretty snowy winter ahead. One analogue year I am using is 09-10. I'm not saying yet that it will be quite as cold and snowy, but this winter could be similar. One thing I can say for sure: get your shovels ready if you live in the Northeast and Southeast, because this definitely not a repeat of last year. Above average precipitation would also help out drought in this area. Slightly below average precipitation for much of the West, Midwest, and even portions of the Northeast.   

Sunset & Storm Collection (Fort Mill, SC)

Looking at This Winter- and Beyond!

Winter 2012-2013
Most Likely Scenario

• Below average temperatures and above average snowfall for much for the East Coast
• Above average temperatures in the West

Spring 2013
Most Likely Scenario

• Above average tornado season- much worse than this year
• Occasional tornado outbreaks in the Southeast and possibly the Northeast
• Tornado Alley gets hit hard

Hurricane Season 2013
Most Likely Scenario

• More active than this year
• Above average season
• More tropical waves coming off of Africa
• U.S. landfalls are less likely than this year, but still possible

*NOTE: These are long- range forecasts, and some ideas are likely to change.