This Week In Pictures

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Second Edition

2012 Hurricane Season

Tropical Storms            Hurricanes              Major Hurricanes
        
        10-12                              5-6                              1-3

A

V

E

R             15                                  8                                  4   

A

G

E

The gulf coast has the highest chance (IN RED) to be affected by a tropical system, while the east coast would be under a secondary chance (IN ORANGE) of being affected by a tropical system.

2011's Hurricane Season

• Tropical Storms- 19
• Hurricanes- 12 
• Major Hurricanes- 5

Tornado Season Outlook 2012

   

This Year, So Far

   This year has started off very active, severe weather wise. The United States has had 274 tornadoes so far this year, and it's only early March! On March 2^nd, we had 107 of those tornadoes, falling in 1^st place in the "Top Ten Tornado Days of 2012"! It was a terrible day, where nearly 40 lives were lost! So the big question is "will this year continue to be active?" I will answer that question in this blog.

 

Where to Watch for Tornadoes

   The largest tornado threat will be across Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, western Georgia, and extreme southwest North Carolina. These areas have a history of getting hit the hardest so far this year. I put eastern Georgia, the rest of North Carolina, all of South Carolina, and Florida in the "Smaller Tornado Threats, Mainly Wind/Hail Threats" area. In Florida, you are not in the right zone, where cold and warm air meets up. If you the Carolinas, you are in a good area if you don't want to see the worst of the tornado outbreaks this year. Many times the North Carolina Mountains will weaken the storms, or cold air wedging will form. This has happened a couple of times already, causing areas like Charlotte to "dodge the bullet". This doesn't mean there is going to be no tornadoes in this region, just probably less widespread than areas to our west.

Below is a map of the tornado reports so far this year, and my forecast.

 

   

 

 

Will The Weakening La Nina Help Calm Down The Severe Weather?
    The weakening La Nina will help a bit at calming down the severe weather. Even with a weakening La Nina, the Southeast still has to worry. The waters of the Gulf of Mexico are above average in temperature. This will help fire up storms. Also, it will take time for the neutral El Nino pattern to get organized. This neutral El Nino Pattern will get organized within the next two months, so stay tuned!

El Nino Status Below

 

 

 

 

 

El Nino Pattern May Start Next Winter, Meaning a Snowier and Colder Pattern for the Southeast

The past two winters have been La Nina patterns. It is pretty rare to have back to back La Nina patterns. It's not unheard of, but it would be extremely rare to have 3 back to back La Nina patterns. Most likely, I expect an El Nino pattern to start, as early as summer. This would be a totally different winter than this one. A La Nina Pattern averages above average temperatures and dry conditions, while an El Nino pattern averages more snowfall and cold weather. This is great weather if you are a snow lover, like I am. I think if all the factors really come together next winter, it will blow away this winter, and maybe even last winter. I would like the El Nino pattern to be strong, rather than weak.