Hurricane Season So Far VS Prediction

So far there have been 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The forecast below was made on December 30, 2011. Everything but the major hurricanes verifies so far, which I forecasted a bit high.                                                  

 

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: First Edition

I know it's pretty early to be predicting the hurricane season but here is my prediction. I think this hurricane season will be slightly less active then last year, but still an above average year.

2012 Hurricane Season

  

Tropical Storms               Hurricanes            Major Hurricanes

         15-18                             8-11                             3-5

A

V

E

R             11                                  6                                  2   

A

G

E



2011's Hurricane Season

• Tropical Storms- 19
• Hurricanes- 12 
• Major Hurricanes- 5

Watching Invest 94L

GFS ensemble members via wunderground.com



Computer models via wunderground.com



Model intensity forecast via wunderground.com



 
Chance of development via NHC

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Second Edition

2012 Hurricane Season

Tropical Storms            Hurricanes              Major Hurricanes
        
        10-12                              5-6                              1-3

A

V

E

R             15                                  8                                  4   

A

G

E

The gulf coast has the highest chance (IN RED) to be affected by a tropical system, while the east coast would be under a secondary chance (IN ORANGE) of being affected by a tropical system.

2011's Hurricane Season

• Tropical Storms- 19
• Hurricanes- 12 
• Major Hurricanes- 5

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: First Edition

I know it's pretty early to be predicting the hurricane season but here is my prediction. I think this hurricane season will be slightly less active then last year, but still an above average year.

2012 Hurricane Season

  

Tropical Storms               Hurricanes            Major Hurricanes

         15-18                             8-11                             3-5

A

V

E

R             11                                  6                                  2   

A

G

E



2011's Hurricane Season

• Tropical Storms- 19
• Hurricanes- 12 
• Major Hurricanes- 5