Thursday, December 29, 2011

NAO Expected to Go Negative Mid January, Also Discussion on Snow

The NAO is expected to go negative around the 11th of January. This might cause a Greenland Block, which would give the East coast more persistent cold air. This is what happened last year, locking the cold air in place. Of course, there is other factors like the AO and PNA tht could also effect the weather pattern. If the AO goes negative while the NAO goes negative, that will also enhance our cold air. We also need the PNA to stay positive, which it will stay through the first part January. It will go negative mid-January. If the Southeast gets snow or not depends on the storm tracks. A storm just off the East coast, a classic Noreaster, would be one of the best chances of snow for the Southeast, especially the Carolinas.
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18 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    When will Charlotte see some actual snow,meaning accumulation!I rally hope Charlotte will see a 2-3 day snow event with 4-7 inches of snow,this that in our winter forecast(Jan/Feb/march)?And if so how many storms do you predict?Thank you!

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  2. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 2:43 PM

    @cog, Early Febuary is looking the most intresting for possible snow events, and mid-January might be intresting to watch too. Right now, I'm still thinking there could be a good 2-3 storms, but it all depends if the pattern changes. Also, I wouldn't expect these storms to have that much snow, maybe more in the 1-4 inch range for snow events.

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  3. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 2:55 PM

    But it really depends. If we get a nice low to form while we are in a cold pattern, we could get some nice snowfall. I would expect a higher chance for 4-7 inch snowfalls, if the NAO stays negative long enough.

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  4. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 4:02 PM

    what are the chances of the NAO to go negative a long time and what are the chances of a 4-7 inch snow storm?

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  5. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    @cdog, right now it looks like a pretty good chance that the NAO will go negative mid-January, but it's too early to tell how long it will stay negative. Also, I don't think there is that great of a chance of 4-7 inch snowfalls since the cold patterns only look to last a few days in a row, and then it gets warm again. Next winter looks like a way better winter, since there could be a weak to moderate El Nino, which Charlotte averages more snow, and colder temperatures.

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  6. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 7:32 PM

    so more 2-4 inch. snowstorms that last like a day,or could it be the Jan.10 setup were we got 3.5-4 inches but had ice with it.For this year?

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  7. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 7:58 PM

    Yeah, I'm thinking there will be some more events that there is rain to start out with, and then it changes to snow on the back end of the storm.

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  8. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 8:43 PM

    would that have accumulations?

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  9. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 8:53 PM

    Yeah, that would probably be when we get our light accumulations. Expect there to be some much nicer accumulations if it is a all snow event; like if a low forms while the arctic air is over us.

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  10. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 9:08 PM

    is that expected to happen,or what are the chances of a low forms while the arctic air is over us,and i know this upcoming week will be very cold.Do you think that more cold shots will come?It would be great if a cold shot came and snow came.

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  11. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 9:29 PM

    Yeah, I think there will be a shot at warmer air after 4 days of temperatures below average. I think there might be another cold pattern starting around the 9th or 10th.

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  12. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 9:30 PM

    Somewhere from the 2nd to 3rd week of January will be intresting.

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  13. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 9:58 PM

    interesting meaning?cold or snow or both?

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  14. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 10:05 PM

    Yeah, cold and possibly snow. I think that might be one of our best chances for snow. Early Febuary will also be one of our best chances of snow.

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  15. AnonymousDecember 31, 2011 at 10:31 PM

    how much one of those 2-4 inch ones?

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  16. UnknownDecember 31, 2011 at 10:53 PM

    2-3 good storms with 1-4 inches of snow, and still wouldn't take out the odds of a storm with snowfall in the 4-8 inch range, weather could suprize us.

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  17. AndyJanuary 1, 2012 at 6:20 PM

    Great blog. Just found you. Snow nut originally from Greenville ,S.C. now in Matthews,N.C. I have been hoping the NAO and AO would go negative. Would like to get the 40 year old lightning glider wooden sled out for some fun. The kids love it.

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  18. UnknownJanuary 1, 2012 at 6:27 PM

    @Andy, thank you! I'm 15 years old, and also a snow nut, believe me! Originally from NY, so I love the snow.

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