What Will the Rest of the Winter Look Like for the Southeast?

When to Expect Snow   

   There will be about 3 days of cold weather starting today. Then after that, warmer air will come in. There will be several days of above average temperatures. A lot of areas will see highs in the 60's again. Mid-January that will change. It will be much colder then. It also looks to possibly stormy. Mid-January and early Febuary I think are going to be the best chances for snow. I am now thinking there will be anywhere from 2-5 storms, instead of my earlier prediction that the Southeast gets 2-3 storms. Right now I'm thinking of lot of storms will be in the 1-4 inch range, but I'm not going to take out the chances of there being a storm in the 4-8 inch range, like last year.



   

What the NAO, AO, and PNA Are Showing

   The NAO, AO, and PNA is what I look I look at for cold air. The NAO will likley go negative mid-January. It is too early to tell how long it will stay negative. If it stays negative for a long time, expect much less periods of warth, and much longer periods of cold air. The AO is looking to possibly go negative too. This will enhance the cold air, when both the NAO and AO are negative. The PNA is currently positive, which is also a good thing if you want cold air. The only problem is that it will be negative by mid-January.



  

   Signs Of Snow Already from the GFS

   There are already signs that mid-January could be snowy. There is snow showing up from the 13th to 14th for the Southeast, according to the GFS model. I know that the GFS sucks at long-ranged forecasts, but it has shown this storm the past couple of days.

GFS Hour 288

Primary Setup for Snow Events

   I think the primary setup for snow this winter will be that warm air is over us. We will start off as rain a lot of the time, and then it will change over to snow on the back end, where the cold air is. This is the kind of setup the GFS is showing fore the 13th-14th. I would expect snowfall to range from a trace to 4 inches in this kind of setup.

Secondary Setup for Snow

   I think a secondary setup for snow is that the cold air is in place, and a low forms. This would be the setup that we get all snow. This would give us a chance a the 4-8 inch snowfall I mentioned earlier in the blog. This kind of snowfall could happen if we have enough moisture and enough cold air. A strong storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, or a strong storm just off the East coast could easily give the Southeast this amount of snow. 



 Other Setups



   Another setup could be a messy mix of everything including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Another setup that has a pretty good chance of setting up is a icestorm. This kind of setup wouldn't depend on just the ground temperature, but also in the temperature above the ground. If there is a deep warm layer above the ground, expect freezing rain.

Setup for Freezing Rain